Trans-Pacific spot rates increased at the end of this past week, despite the mid-summer, tariff-driven import rush fading and capacity remaining ample. Carriers are also reshaping networks to circumnavigate upcoming U.S. port fees on China-linked tonnage, a shift that may change service patterns into October but is not yet tightening overall capacity.The big question now is whether rates hold, and will carriers reduce rates quickly.
For U.S./Canadian importers, the near-term setup favors shorter lead times and more negotiable short-term pricing. Watch for a late-September/early-October round of blank sailings tied to China’s Golden Week and for additional network tweaks as the October fee start date nears. Longer-run, the container-ship orderbook—now set to surpass 10 million TEU—keeps pressure on rates and improves space availability through Q4 barring unexpected disruptions.
Highlights
Trans-Pacific blank sailings remain below historical patterns for late August, an unusual signal ahead of Golden Week. That means more weekly departures are sailing as scheduled, leaving space more available than typical for this period. If carriers announce additional voids in the weeks ahead, expect those to cluster around the first half of October.
On the supply side, structural capacity continues to expand. The containership orderbook is poised to exceed 10 million TEU, reinforcing an oversupplied backdrop even as alliances realign. This overhang should keep utilization in check and temper any sustained price spikes unless there’s a major disruption such as severe weather or unexpected port closures.
At major North American gateways, no material new congestion flashpoints emerged this week. Recent performance at Southern California ports suggests truck and rail dwell times are holding steady, even under surging volume conditions. That stability indicates LA/LB can absorb near-term variability effectively.
Capacity & Congestion
Rates increased at the end of this past week, despite Asia–U.S. spot levels previously being down from their early-July peak. While rates have jumped, they may not hold - although a brief uptick on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was observed recently, it proved short-lived, and the broader trajectory remains downward. The tariff-related import rush that temporarily buoyed volumes earlier this summer has now clearly faded, easing price pressure across the board.
For importers, short-term deals remain advantageous. It’s wise to benchmark weekly and keep flexibility in allocations to capture further easing if it materializes. Focus on percentage-based trends and relative spreads between coasts rather than locking into longer-term fixed pricing too early.
Pricing & Rates
Carriers are actively reshaping networks ahead of mid-October U.S. port fees targeting China-linked ships. One major alliance has already split a pendulum service into two loops, effectively removing a group of Chinese-built vessels from U.S. trade exposure. Similar adjustments—including pendulum splits, port swaps, and Mexico routings—are expected in the coming weeks.
Other carriers are also re-routing services or launching alternatives (such as China–Mexico strings) to reduce exposure. For shippers, this translates to minor schedule reshuffles, new transshipment points, or adjusted terminal calls without materially reducing overall capacity. Importers should monitor weekly advisories and be ready to accept substitute ports within their contracted service families.
At the same time, carriers are reporting muted peak-season demand and are prioritizing schedule reliability over aggressive capacity withdrawal. Their preference is to maintain coverage and customer stickiness rather than risk losing volumes by over-blanking services.
Carrier Strategy
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