Summary

Trans-Pacific spot rates increased at the end of this past week, despite the mid-summer, tariff-driven import rush fading and capacity remaining ample. Carriers are also reshaping networks to circumnavigate upcoming U.S. port fees on China-linked tonnage, a shift that may change service patterns into October but is not yet tightening overall capacity.The big question now is whether rates hold, and will carriers reduce rates quickly. 

For U.S./Canadian importers, the near-term setup favors shorter lead times and more negotiable short-term pricing. Watch for a late-September/early-October round of blank sailings tied to China’s Golden Week and for additional network tweaks as the October fee start date nears. Longer-run, the container-ship orderbook—now set to surpass 10 million TEU—keeps pressure on rates and improves space availability through Q4 barring unexpected disruptions.

Highlights

• Trans-Pacific spot rates fell sharply week over week as front-loading faded; capacity remains accessible.
• Blank sailings on Asia–North America remain below historical norms for this point in the calendar.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Trans-Pacific blank sailings remain below historical patterns for late August, an unusual signal ahead of Golden Week. That means more weekly departures are sailing as scheduled, leaving space more available than typical for this period. If carriers announce additional voids in the weeks ahead, expect those to cluster around the first half of October.

On the supply side, structural capacity continues to expand. The containership orderbook is poised to exceed 10 million TEU, reinforcing an oversupplied backdrop even as alliances realign. This overhang should keep utilization in check and temper any sustained price spikes unless there’s a major disruption such as severe weather or unexpected port closures.

At major North American gateways, no material new congestion flashpoints emerged this week. Recent performance at Southern California ports suggests truck and rail dwell times are holding steady, even under surging volume conditions. That stability indicates LA/LB can absorb near-term variability effectively.

Capacity & Congestion

• Trans-Pacific blank sailings remain below normal pre-Golden Week patterns.
• Global supply picture remains heavy as the orderbook pushes past 10M TEU.
• No new congestion advisories at key U.S./Canadian ports; SoCal dwell metrics recently stable.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Rates increased at the end of this past week, despite Asia–U.S. spot levels previously being down from their early-July peak. While rates have jumped, they may not hold - although a brief uptick on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was observed recently, it proved short-lived, and the broader trajectory remains downward. The tariff-related import rush that temporarily buoyed volumes earlier this summer has now clearly faded, easing price pressure across the board.

For importers, short-term deals remain advantageous. It’s wise to benchmark weekly and keep flexibility in allocations to capture further easing if it materializes. Focus on percentage-based trends and relative spreads between coasts rather than locking into longer-term fixed pricing too early.

Pricing & Rates

• Asia→US spot rates fell at a double-digit pace week over week; down ~60–70% from early July levels.
• Brief SCFI improvement did not alter the broader downtrend.
• Tariff-related front-loading impulse is fading, easing price pressure.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Carriers are actively reshaping networks ahead of mid-October U.S. port fees targeting China-linked ships. One major alliance has already split a pendulum service into two loops, effectively removing a group of Chinese-built vessels from U.S. trade exposure. Similar adjustments—including pendulum splits, port swaps, and Mexico routings—are expected in the coming weeks.

Other carriers are also re-routing services or launching alternatives (such as China–Mexico strings) to reduce exposure. For shippers, this translates to minor schedule reshuffles, new transshipment points, or adjusted terminal calls without materially reducing overall capacity. Importers should monitor weekly advisories and be ready to accept substitute ports within their contracted service families.

At the same time, carriers are reporting muted peak-season demand and are prioritizing schedule reliability over aggressive capacity withdrawal. Their preference is to maintain coverage and customer stickiness rather than risk losing volumes by over-blanking services.

Carrier Strategy

• Pendulum split implemented to reduce U.S. exposure of Chinese-built ships.
• Carriers are re-routing services, including China–Mexico options, to sidestep U.S. port fees.
• Carrier tone: muted peak-season demand; emphasis on maintaining coverage and reliability.
  
  

Commentary

What to do now:

1. Lean into short-term flexibility. With spot levels sliding and blank sailings still below normal, importers have leverage. Favor 4–8-week commitments with review clauses, and keep weekly tenders active to capture further easing.
   
   
2. Pre-plan October sailings. Expect a wave of Golden Week voids to be published on short notice. Lock in priority sailings two to three weeks ahead, and load earlier in the week to avoid roll risks on end-week departures.

Routing & risk tips:

• Watch network tweaks tied to the U.S. port fee policy in mid-October. These changes may alter cutoff/ETA patterns. Confirm cutoffs weekly and accept nearest-equivalent alternatives within your service family.
  
  
• Use West Coast when time-sensitive. With Southern California port performance stable, USWC routings remain a strong option to cut days and reduce risk while rates are soft.