Ocean freight conditions tightened modestly into early January as pre–Lunar New Year (LNY) demand returned to the trans-Pacific, and carriers leaned on early-year GRIs to lift spot markets. Multiple indicators pointed to improving pricing momentum versus late December, but with mixed signals on underlying volume strength—suggesting that the rate move is being supported as much by carrier pricing discipline and capacity management as by a broad-based demand rebound.
Separately, North American gateway dynamics continued to evolve: West Coast secondary ports are still working through service concentration and network shifts, while select port developments may incrementally improve optionality for certain inland shippers over time.
Highlights
The most material capacity narrative this week was how carriers are positioning networks and sailings ahead of LNY. Trans-Pacific rates moved higher into early January, driven by New Year GRIs and the seasonal ramp into mid-February factory closures.
In general, carriers are now pushing for bigger increases on January 15th, and some have announced PSS surcharges from February 1st. While pricing is firming, volume visibility remains uneven, creating uncertainty around how sustainable the current capacity tightness will be if demand does not accelerate meaningfully.
From a deployment perspective, pre-CNY network behavior is diverging by trade lane. Asia–North Europe is seeing clearer front-loading, while Asia–North America patterns differ by coast. Asia–US West Coast capacity remains more volatile, with sharper swings in weekly availability, while Asia–US East Coast capacity appears steadier with a higher baseline through the holiday period. This suggests that late-season demand spikes could more quickly stress USWC space availability.
On port operations, West Coast throughput trends continue to reflect softer import demand and ongoing carrier network adjustments. Some ports are seeing reduced calls or service consolidation, pushing certain flows toward alternative gateways, including Canadian West Coast ports. Additionally, the restart of Portland’s container terminal under private management introduces longer-term optionality for regional shippers, though it is not expected to materially impact congestion levels in the near term.
Highlights
Rate direction was the clearest upward signal this week, particularly on trans-Pacific headhaul lanes. Early January saw solid week-over-week gains as carriers implemented GRIs and leveraged seasonal demand ahead of LNY. For importers, this has translated into fewer soft spot opportunities and firmer carrier positioning on both base rates and ancillary surcharges.
Month-over-month comparisons also show a meaningful lift in Asia–U.S. pricing as seasonality reasserts itself. While some incremental capacity has been added on certain West Coast services, overall scheduled capacity remains below year-ago levels, supporting higher utilization if seasonal volumes materialize. This dynamic increases the importance of early bookings to mitigate rolled-cargo risk.
At the same time, broader demand indicators remain mixed. While December import volumes improved modestly versus November, they remain materially lower year-over-year. This reinforces that current pricing strength is being driven more by tactical capacity management and seasonal timing than by a structural rebound in U.S. import demand.
Highlights
Carrier strategy this week was characterized less by discrete announcements and more by continued network optimization. Alliance service updates emphasize fewer port calls, streamlined rotations, and tighter schedule discipline across major East–West trades. While these changes aim to improve reliability, they also concentrate cargo flows and increase sensitivity to missed cutoffs.
In the near-term trans-Pacific market, carriers are clearly testing the market’s willingness to absorb higher pricing early in the year. The strategy centers on combining seasonal demand with pricing discipline to reset rate levels after late-December volatility. Importers should expect limited carrier flexibility if bookings tighten, particularly on preferred sailings.
Looking ahead, broader market commentary continues to frame 2026 as an operationally complex year, with ongoing uncertainty around routing normalization, fleet deployment, and service consistency. This supports maintaining routing flexibility and avoiding overreliance on any single port pair or service string.
Highlights
For U.S. and Canadian importers, the immediate planning posture should assume moderate tightening through the pre-LNY window. Rates are rising, space availability is becoming less forgiving, and late bookings carry increased risk. Time-sensitive cargo scheduled for late January through mid-February should be prioritized now, with conservative assumptions around cutoff adherence and space protection.
Tactically, importers should focus on three areas: