Summary
Ocean freight conditions tightened modestly into early January as pre–Lunar New Year (LNY) demand returned to the trans-Pacific, and carriers leaned on early-year GRIs to lift spot markets. Multiple indicators pointed to improving pricing momentum versus late December, but with mixed signals on underlying volume strength—suggesting that the rate move is being supported as much by carrier pricing discipline and capacity management as by a broad-based demand rebound.
Separately, North American gateway dynamics continued to evolve: West Coast secondary ports are still working through service concentration and network shifts, while select port developments may incrementally improve optionality for certain inland shippers over time.
Highlights
- Spot pricing momentum improved into early January, led by trans-Pacific lanes ahead of LNY
- Import volumes remained softer year-over-year, reinforcing that capacity and pricing actions are a key driver of rate firmness
Capacity & Congestion
The most material capacity narrative this week was how carriers are positioning networks and sailings ahead of LNY. Trans-Pacific rates moved higher into early January, driven by New Year GRIs and the seasonal ramp into mid-February factory closures.
In general, carriers are now pushing for bigger increases on January 15th, and some have announced PSS surcharges from February 1st. While pricing is firming, volume visibility remains uneven, creating uncertainty around how sustainable the current capacity tightness will be if demand does not accelerate meaningfully.
From a deployment perspective, pre-CNY network behavior is diverging by trade lane. Asia–North Europe is seeing clearer front-loading, while Asia–North America patterns differ by coast. Asia–US West Coast capacity remains more volatile, with sharper swings in weekly availability, while Asia–US East Coast capacity appears steadier with a higher baseline through the holiday period. This suggests that late-season demand spikes could more quickly stress USWC space availability.
On port operations, West Coast throughput trends continue to reflect softer import demand and ongoing carrier network adjustments. Some ports are seeing reduced calls or service consolidation, pushing certain flows toward alternative gateways, including Canadian West Coast ports. Additionally, the restart of Portland’s container terminal under private management introduces longer-term optionality for regional shippers, though it is not expected to materially impact congestion levels in the near term.
Highlights
- Trans-Pacific capacity and pricing are tightening into LNY; late bookings face higher space risk
- West Coast ports continue to feel the effects of carrier network rationalization
- Portland’s terminal restart may improve long-term routing options for select inland shippers
Pricing & Rates
Rate direction was the clearest upward signal this week, particularly on trans-Pacific headhaul lanes. Early January saw solid week-over-week gains as carriers implemented GRIs and leveraged seasonal demand ahead of LNY. For importers, this has translated into fewer soft spot opportunities and firmer carrier positioning on both base rates and ancillary surcharges.
Month-over-month comparisons also show a meaningful lift in Asia–U.S. pricing as seasonality reasserts itself. While some incremental capacity has been added on certain West Coast services, overall scheduled capacity remains below year-ago levels, supporting higher utilization if seasonal volumes materialize. This dynamic increases the importance of early bookings to mitigate rolled-cargo risk.
At the same time, broader demand indicators remain mixed. While December import volumes improved modestly versus November, they remain materially lower year-over-year. This reinforces that current pricing strength is being driven more by tactical capacity management and seasonal timing than by a structural rebound in U.S. import demand.
Highlights
- Trans-Pacific spot markets moved upward into early January on GRIs and pre-LNY shipping
- Year-over-year import volumes remain softer, making post-LNY rate sustainability uncertain
- Carriers appear focused on defending utilization rather than chasing volume
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carrier strategy this week was characterized less by discrete announcements and more by continued network optimization. Alliance service updates emphasize fewer port calls, streamlined rotations, and tighter schedule discipline across major East–West trades. While these changes aim to improve reliability, they also concentrate cargo flows and increase sensitivity to missed cutoffs.
In the near-term trans-Pacific market, carriers are clearly testing the market’s willingness to absorb higher pricing early in the year. The strategy centers on combining seasonal demand with pricing discipline to reset rate levels after late-December volatility. Importers should expect limited carrier flexibility if bookings tighten, particularly on preferred sailings.
Looking ahead, broader market commentary continues to frame 2026 as an operationally complex year, with ongoing uncertainty around routing normalization, fleet deployment, and service consistency. This supports maintaining routing flexibility and avoiding overreliance on any single port pair or service string.
Highlights
- Streamlined services increase the importance of cutoff and documentation discipline
- Carriers are prioritizing rate defense over rapid volume growth
Network variability remains a structural feature rather than a temporary condition
Commentary
For U.S. and Canadian importers, the immediate planning posture should assume moderate tightening through the pre-LNY window. Rates are rising, space availability is becoming less forgiving, and late bookings carry increased risk. Time-sensitive cargo scheduled for late January through mid-February should be prioritized now, with conservative assumptions around cutoff adherence and space protection.
Tactically, importers should focus on three areas:
- Trans-Pacific booking discipline, closely tracking space availability and carrier follow-through on GRIs;
- Routing flexibility, particularly between USWC and USEC options where inland networks allow; and
- Execution readiness, as streamlined services amplify the consequences of missed cutoffs or documentation delays. Proactive planning over the next two weeks will be critical to minimizing rollover risk and maintaining schedule integrity.
