Shippabo Newsletter 9/8/2025

Summary

Trans-Pacific conditions were mixed this week. Spot indices show a modest uptick to the US West and East Coasts even as overall global benchmarks edged down, pointing to trade-lane divergence. Carriers are leaning on capacity controls: new blank sailings and a suspension of at least one loop were announced, and schedule reliability slipped from recent highs. For importers, the practical impact is uneven pricing pressure by lane and slightly longer planning buffers as reliability softens. Nonetheless, carriers are announcing large rate increases for mid-month. 

While short-run rates nudged higher into North America, forward demand signals remain cautious. Carriers are trying to arrest a broader decline ahead of China’s Golden Week by selectively withdrawing capacity. Expect tactical GRI/PSS messaging and week-to-week variability in loadability.

Highlights

• Carriers are announcing large rate increases for September 15.
• Trans-Pacific spot to US coasts rose week-over-week even as the global composite index slipped on Asia–Europe weakness.
• ONE will suspend a Trans-Pacific service and tweak multiple loops; schedule reliability dipped from recent highs.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Carriers tightened screws on the Asia–North America network. Ocean Network Express (ONE) will suspend the PS5 loop and revise PS4, PS6, FP2, and EC2 rotations from late September through October, shifting origins and adding or omitting ports. This amounts to a targeted capacity pullback on specific corridors and re-routing options via alternative strings. For shippers, expect pockets of space tightening on lanes touched by PS5 while some alternatives remain via adjusted rotations.

Beyond ONE’s moves, blank sailings announcements increased around the margins as lines attempt to stabilize prices heading into Golden Week. The halt of a Premier Alliance service was another signal of a demand cool-down and further blanking from Asia to the US in early September. Operationally, this can translate to reduced weekly frequency and narrower cutoff windows on select gateways.

On schedule reliability, global on-time performance slipped to around 65% in July, down more than two points month-over-month, with late-arrival delays worsening to nearly five days. That softening, coming off a six-month improving stretch, suggests importers should preserve a buffer on transit assumptions into September.

Port flow signals in North America were stable to slightly improving this week on the US West Coast: truck and rail dwell times remained steady at LA/LB despite elevated volumes. That said, inland rail timing and chassis availability still warrant lane-by-lane confirmation, especially for time-sensitive cargo.

Highlights

• Asia–NA network: ONE suspends PS5; multiple loop adjustments may shift where space is available by origin.
• Blank sailings and a service halt point to selective capacity withdrawals into September.
• Schedule reliability dipped month-over-month; average late arrivals are close to five days.
• LA/LB operational dwell steady on truck/rail; verify inland legs and chassis by market.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Global composite pricing slipped around 1% week-over-week, but Trans-Pacific lanes bucked the trend: Shanghai–Los Angeles rose roughly 8% and Shanghai–New York increased about 12%, while Asia–Europe fell, leaving the overall index marginally down. The lane split underscores that Asia–North America demand/capacity balance is tighter than Asia–Europe at the moment.

Weekly reads were mixed: earlier in the week, some indices showed flat Trans-Pacific averages; later reads pointed to near double-digit week-over-week firming toward the US West Coast—consistent with Drewry’s lane-level direction. Translation: tactical carrier actions (blankings, loop changes) are having localized effects even as macro demand is subdued. Expect near-term GRI/PSS attempts around mid-September tied to Golden Week sailings, with stickiness dependent on how aggressively capacity is withdrawn.

Forward-looking import demand indicators remain cautious: retailers expect double-digit year-over-year import declines (around 20%) for September through December versus 2024, which, if realized, would limit pricing power after the holiday period. Contracting posture remains opportunistic: many BCOs continue favoring shorter terms or hybrid strategies while testing mini-bids against soft demand pockets.

Highlights

• Composite index fell about 1% w/w; Trans-Pacific up (USWC +8%, USEC +12%).
• Some indices showed flat early-week TP prints, shifting to near 10% gains later—sign of lane-specific tightness.
• Importers expect weaker volumes into Q4, tempering sustained price hikes absent deeper capacity cuts.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

• ONE network changes (effective late Sep/Oct): PS5 suspended until further notice; PS4 adds Ningbo; PS6 adds Qingdao; FP2 adds Pusan; EC2 adds Norfolk. Expect different cutoffs and feeder routings at origins and selective tightening on lanes formerly served by PS5.
• Alliance/service adjustments: the Premier Alliance halted a service as demand ebbed—another marker of defensive network management via blankings.
• Reliability leadership: Maersk remains the top performer at over 80% on-time, with alliance-level performance diverging. Shippers should weigh these deltas when choosing strings for time-sensitive SKUs.
  
  

Bullet highlights

• ONE: PS5 pause; multiple loop edits reshuffle origin coverage and NA gateways.
• More blankings/service pauses used to counter soft bookings ahead of Golden Week.
• Carrier on-time performance spreads persist; use reliability as a routing criterion.
  
  

Operational Disruptions

No acute North American weather or closure events dominated this week; operational steadiness at LA/LB was noted despite high volumes. However, with schedule reliability slipping and select blankings ahead, week-specific roll risks increase on some strings. Time-critical cargo should target earlier cutoffs or alternative gateways and confirm chassis availability at the destination ramp.

Bullet highlights

• LA/LB dwell steady; watch inland ramps on a lane basis.
• Elevated roll risk on strings affected by blankings or loop suspensions into late September.
  
  

Commentary

What to watch / how to act:

1. Monitor blank sailings and the ONE changes if you load from North China or Southeast China origins formerly using PS5/related loops. Consider booking one sailing earlier than usual for late-September/early-October ETDs to reduce roll risk. Where feasible, build two to four extra days into lead times given the step-down in global reliability.
2. Price strategy: With TP spot showing single-digit-plus gains while the composite index is slightly down, stay flexible. Use short-tenor or index-linked deals to capture potential softening after Golden Week—unless your lane is directly hit by capacity cuts, in which case earlier commitments can hedge near-term GRIs/PSS.
3. Port/rail operations: Keep LA/LB routings in play—current dwell signals are stable—but verify destination ramp turn-times and chassis pools before locking routings. Where inland congestion risk is higher, evaluate USEC gateways as alternates, noting this week’s USEC rate lift and possible longer ocean transit.