Trans-Pacific conditions shifted notably in the run-up to China’s Golden Week (Oct 1–7). Carriers accelerated late-stage blank sailings, pulling sizable capacity out of Asia–North America and Asia–Europe over the last four weeks, and schedule reliability ticked slightly higher month-on-month. At the same time, spot benchmarks eased week-over-week as earlier GRIs faded, though select carrier/service changes ahead of new U.S. port fees for China-linked tonnage add fresh uncertainty for October sailings.
For U.S./Canadian importers, the near-term picture is mixed: space tightens on certain late-September/early-October departures due to blankings, but softer spot indices versus early September reduce upward pressure on all-in costs. Expect choppier week-to-week movements around the Oct 14 fee start date and the holiday lull/return in China.
Highlights
Carriers markedly stepped up blank sailings into Golden Week, with additional hundreds of thousands of TEU removed across Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe in the past month. This late push aligns with the typical pattern of last-minute capacity discipline when holiday factory closures dampen outbound volumes. For importers, that translates to tighter near-term space on some weeks despite an overall softer demand backdrop.
Schedule reliability improved marginally in August: global on-time performance reached roughly 65%, up slightly month-over-month and more than 12 points year-over-year, while average delay for late arrivals hovered just under 5 days. Reliability differentials among carriers remain meaningful, with top performers exceeding 70% on-time. Into October, the interplay of blankings and holiday ramp-back should keep reliability steady-to-slightly firmer, barring weather or operational shocks.
On North American port fluidity, there were no major new congestion flare-ups this week. The Port of Oakland rolled out new app-based dashboards to broaden visibility and coordination—incremental, but positive, for landside planning. Recent data from Los Angeles/Long Beach indicates volumes remain robust through August, with localized impacts from an isolated container-recovery operation contained to a single berth. Net takeaway: major U.S. gateways are handling volumes without systemic delays, though inland equipment and chassis turns still warrant lane-by-lane checks.
Highlights
Weekly rate momentum softened: the World Container Index fell about 6% week-over-week, with both Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe lanes contributing. Market commentary points to earlier GRIs and blankings losing traction, pulling averages back toward early-September levels. Practically, importers saw modest easing from the early-month highs, though variability by service and week persists.
Despite the week-over-week slippage, some measures still show rates above mid-August levels on a month-over-month basis, particularly on CN–USWC and via Panama to USEC. Expect a bumpy October with alternating GRI/PSS attempts and selective discounting around the holiday pause and mid-month fee changes.
Separately, analysts noted that U.S. import demand could face pressure from the tariff environment heading into Q4, which—if realized—would cap carrier pricing power after Golden Week. Importers should watch how demand signals translate into late-October/November GRI stickiness.
Highlights
Chinese carrier Hede Shipping suspended one of its two Trans-Pacific services ahead of the Oct 14 U.S. port fee changes on China-linked tonnage—an early example of service rationalization tied to the upcoming cost regime. Expect other niche or seasonal loops to be reassessed if fee pass-through proves difficult.
Large incumbents have signaled intent to maintain coverage despite the looming fees, but cost burdens could still drive selective adjustments. That calculus supports continued blanking or tonnage shifts to balance utilization.
Trade press also points to additional Trans-Pacific capacity cuts announced in the last several days to stem the spot-rate slide into Golden Week. While many details sit behind paywalls, the direction is clear: alliances and independent loops are pruning sailings to stabilize utilization through early October.
Highlights
This week’s pattern—accelerating blank sailings, slightly firmer reliability, and easing spot indices—is typical of the Golden Week shoulder. For importers, the practical move is to lock in space for the first post-holiday departures where you have firm demand, while using the current softness to negotiate on lanes showing the largest week-over-week declines. Watch how carriers handle the Oct 14 U.S. port fee: if pass-throughs stick, we could see selective capacity reshuffles or temporary surcharges on China-linked routings.
Actionable Focus Areas (next 2–3 weeks)