Shippabo Blog

Shippabo Newsletter 9/15/2025

Written by Shippabo | Sep 15,2025

Summary

Trans-Pacific conditions remained soft overall this week, with carriers dialing back seasonal capacity experiments and signaling additional voids ahead of China’s Golden Week to stem sliding spot levels. Multiple alliances suspended seasonal services and Pacific South loops, pointing to tightening eastbound capacity even as demand underwhelms. While several carriers have in fact implemented additional Sept 15th increases in the 800-1000 level, but it is very early and there are doubts on if this price level will be maintained. 

Spot trends were mixed by lane: some West Coast corridors saw a brief early-September uptick, but pricing leveled off later in the week, with the trans-Atlantic essentially flat. Asia–North America trade feels stable-to-easing into late September, with carriers relying on blank sailings to slow the decline.

Highlights

  • Seasonal trans-Pacific capacity trims point to near-term tightening even as demand softens.
  • Rates are broadly stable to slightly lower week-over-week; selective USWC lanes saw early-month lifts that faded by mid-September.

Capacity & Congestion

Carriers acted decisively to withdraw capacity this week, suspending seasonal trans-Pacific loops and halting Pacific South services. These moves, coming ahead of Golden Week, reduce weekly sailings and increase gaps between departures, particularly from secondary origin ports.

Additional blank sailings are expected to cluster around late September and early October. While that timing coincides with Golden Week, underlying demand remains muted, so utilization is likely to remain balanced rather than tight. Importers should plan for narrower sailing choices and earlier cut-off pressure on popular weeks.

No major congestion spikes were reported at U.S. or Canadian ports. With volumes easing off summer highs and carriers trimming sailings, yard and berth fluidity remain manageable. Local chassis or appointment shortages may still arise but have not triggered widespread delays.

Highlights

  • Asia–NA trade: seasonal voids rising into late Sept/early Oct; select loops suspended.
  • Weekly utilization likely stabilizing rather than tightening; softer bookings persist.
  • No new broad-based congestion wave reported at U.S./Canadian gateways this week.

Pricing & Rates

Some Asia–USWC spot lanes saw a short-lived early-September lift, but that momentum faded as the week progressed. It remains to be seen if the Sept 15th price increases (above) will hold. 

Overall, conditions were flat-to-slightly lower compared to last week, and trans-Atlantic pricing was essentially unchanged. Carriers are expected to implement GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges around Golden Week, but their effectiveness will depend on how tightly capacity is managed.

Looking at the month-to-date picture, rates have remained relatively steady despite softening volumes—suggesting carriers are prioritizing capacity control over rate competition.

Highlights

  • Asia–USWC: early-month spot lift faded; this week looks flat-to-easing overall.
  • Trans-Atlantic: essentially flat week-over-week, with soft year-end demand expectations.
  • Expect GRI/PSS attempts around Golden Week; effectiveness hinges on voiding discipline.

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

  • Seasonal loop withdrawals: Seasonal trans-Pacific loops and Pacific South services were suspended, signaling a return to capacity discipline. Importers should expect modestly longer transits where cargo must roll to alternative strings.
  • Blank sailings cadence into Golden Week: Carriers are front-loading voids around late September and early October to maintain rate levels. This may compress sailing options over a two-to-three-week window but is unlikely to trigger widespread rollovers if demand remains soft.
  • Network reliability context: With rates steady-to-soft, carriers are managing schedules through voids and vessel reallocations rather than adding supply. This should stabilize reliability on surviving strings but reduce sailing frequency for certain ports.

Highlights

  • Seasonal TP loop suspended; weekly capacity trimmed.
  • Pacific South loop halted; more Asia–US blanks flagged pre-Golden Week.
  • Expect fewer weekly departures on select corridors but steadier performance on remaining string

Commentary

Heading into late September, the outlook remains one of stable-to-easing pricing combined with incremental capacity tightening via blank sailings. Importers should book earlier for weeks with known voids and consider alternate ports or strings when service suspensions affect their usual routings.

To reduce risk, consider splitting bookings across multiple sailings and using short-term contracts to maintain flexibility should prices soften further post-Golden Week. With congestion low, routing through major gateways remains reliable, but weekly cut-off pressure could increase where capacity is withdrawn.