Trans-Pacific spot rates eased again last week, with Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) pricing down high single digits week-over-week and East Coast (NAEC) down low single digits. The pullback leaves benchmarks near — and in some lanes at — pre–Red Sea levels. Carriers are reacting by trimming sailings into early September to stem the slide. For importers, booking windows remain available on most weeks, but week-to-week variability in capacity is increasing, which raises the risk of rolled cargo if you aim for the very lowest sailings.
Ongoing tariff whiplash continues to cloud Q3/Q4 demand planning. Several forwarders report slowed ordering among SMB importers while they await clarity, and carriers are signaling further near-term capacity management on the trans-Pacific to balance softer bookings.
Highlights
Blank sailings: Carrier announcements indicate additional blanking into late August and early September on Asia–NAWC and Asia–NAEC loops. While the absolute number of cancellations varies by alliance, the signal is clear: carriers are cutting back select departures to counter softer spot demand and stabilize pricing. Expect thinner sailing options in weeks 35–37, with particular pressure on Shanghai/Ningbo origins to LA/LB.
Capacity availability and utilization: Despite blankings, weekly capacity has become materially more volatile compared to pre-pandemic norms. There has been a “sharp increase” in unstable weekly capacity across major east/west trades, contributing to lumpier arrivals and greater short-term planning risk for importers. This means the same lane can swing from open to tight from one week to the next — especially around weeks with multiple cancellations.
Port conditions (U.S./Canada): No acute disruptions were reported this week at primary U.S. gateways, and Canadian West Coast terminals are operating normally. However, with carriers bunching or smoothing sailings, importers should anticipate variable weekly yard density and occasional dwell spikes. Build in extra dray flexibility for weeks with higher arrival concentration.
Highlights
Spot direction: Trans-Pacific spot benchmarks eased again last week — putting levels near pre–Red Sea baselines. Early-week indications suggest further softening, but carriers’ capacity cuts aim to slow or arrest the decline into September.
GRI/PSS posture: Given the latest declines, several carriers are leaning more on tactical blankings than on fresh GRIs to support levels into late August and early September. Selective peak season surcharges or equipment imbalance fees may surface on weeks adjacent to heavy blanking.
Contract dynamics: With spot easing and near-term demand unclear, shippers continue to favor short-term commitments and quarterly tenders on base volumes, adding FAK/short-term layers opportunistically when weeks are loose. Expect carriers to prioritize securing stable MQCs rather than deep cuts.
Highlights
Network adjustments: Carriers are signaling additional capacity discipline on the trans-Pacific through selective blankings and minor loop tweaks rather than wholesale service withdrawals. No major new capacity has been injected into NAWC lanes; instead, lines are redeploying cautiously and trimming departures to align with softer bookings.
Alliance behavior: Expect week-specific cancellations across multiple alliances rather than systematic pullouts. This approach reduces costs while preserving schedule footprints, but it increases week-to-week variability and raises the risk of missed connections on transshipment routings.
Schedule reliability: Reliability remains steady but uneven by service; the larger driver of planning risk this month is blank-sailing variability rather than transit punctuality. Importers should plan buffers around weeks with multiple cancellations or closely spaced ETAs.
Highlights
For U.S. and Canadian importers, the playbook this week is discipline and optionality. With spot easing and carriers blanking to stabilize levels, you can capture savings on softer weeks — provided you maintain sufficient contract cover to avoid roll risk when capacity tightens around cancellations. Where possible, secure space 2–3 weeks out on core SKUs, then layer FAK/short-term bookings into weeks with better availability.
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