Summary

Trans-Pacific conditions eased further this week. Spot rates continued to drift lower as the post-frontloading lull set in and carriers’ capacity controls slowed—but didn’t stop—the decline. Analysts highlight that average Asia–U.S. spot levels are now at their lowest since late 2023, with the steepest recent percentage drops showing up on Asia–USEC corridors.

U.S. gateway performance remains solid. The Port of Los Angeles reported a record July—crossing the 1-million TEU mark—underscoring how frontloaded cargo inflated mid-summer throughput before demand tapered. Near-term, volumes are expected to normalize rather than surge, given the 90-day extension of current U.S.–China tariff levels, which removed the incentive for another immediate rush.

Carrier strategy remains focused on schedule reliability, capacity management and cost control. Maersk raised full-year guidance on higher Q2 volumes and flagged Gemini Cooperation reliability above its 90% target—an operational focus that should support planning even as prices soften.

Highlights

• Rates kept easing week-over-week; Asia–USEC showed the sharpest recent percentage declines.
• LA posted record July throughput; no repeat “panic” rush expected given the tariff extension.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Carriers continued “surgical” capacity management—blanking departures and trimming ad-hoc loaders—to slow the rate slide, but increasing vessel supply is still outpacing demand into late August. Analysts note July’s average decline in global container prices slowed to ~6% versus June’s sharper fall, a sign that capacity actions are cushioning—but not reversing—market softness. For planners, that implies near-term space is generally available, with pockets of tightness around specific sailing weeks on Asia–USWC strings where voids bunch departures.

Inbound demand signals suggest a steady, slower cadence rather than a late-August surge. With tariff levels extended for another 90 days, importers have less reason to accelerate bookings, pointing to a more even spread of volumes into September. That, combined with the reliability push from the Gemini network, should modestly improve schedule predictability for Asia–NA trades even if individual blank sailings still interrupt weekly flows.

Highlights

• Capacity is being actively managed, but added fleet supply keeps pressure on space utilization.
• LA throughput hit a record in July; operational cadence expected to normalize as frontloading fades
• Asia–NA reliability supported by Gemini’s >90% target performance.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Spot pricing on the trans-Pacific fell again this week. Market averages are now the lowest since late 2023; Asia–USEC spot levels have decreased by high-single-digit percentages since late July, outpacing declines on some other trades. Month-on-month, July’s global average decline (~6%) was far less severe than June, indicating carriers’ capacity actions are moderating the pace of erosion.

The tariff extension decision removed a major near-term trigger for emergency bookings, reducing upside price risk for late-August voyages. In practical terms, shippers are seeing week-over-week softening on most headhaul Asia–North America corridors, with larger percentage dips on USEC versus USWC lanes in recent updates. Expect carriers to test selective GRIs/PSS where blanked sailings create local tightness, but broader market direction remains easing unless demand strengthens.

Highlights

• Trans-Pacific spot rates: easing week-over-week; Asia–USEC down by high-single-digit % since late July.
• July’s average price decline slowed to ~6% vs. June’s steeper slide, reflecting capacity discipline.
• Tariff extension reduced immediate upside risk; broader near-term direction remains downward.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Strategically, carriers (Maersk and Hapag Lloyd in particular) are emphasizing on-time performance and network stability. Maersk reported higher Q2 volumes and raised guidance, citing the Gemini network’s schedule reliability at or above its 90% target since launch—a sign that alliance/network re-designs are translating into operational steadiness even in a softening price environment. For importers, better reliability can lower buffer-stock needs and reduce the cost of schedule variance.

Capacity placement remains fluid. While lines are continuing to blank underperforming sailings to slow price declines, incremental vessel supply coming into global fleets will keep utilization under pressure through late Q3 unless demand surprises to the upside. Importers should anticipate intermittent service voids and week-specific tightness rather than broad scarcity.

Highlights

• Maersk/Gemini: reliability above the 90% target; guidance raised on higher volumes.
• Expect continued selective blank sailings amid rising global capacity.
  
  

Commentary

Importers face a favorable but uneven short-term environment: ample space, downward-trending spot rates, and improving reliability. The main risks are timing mismatches caused by blank sailings and potential selective surcharges. With the tariff extension smoothing demand, importers have an opportunity to plan more evenly across the next two months.

Action steps:

• Monitor blank sailings closely on Asia–USWC trades, as week-specific gaps may still cause last-minute re-routing.
• Consider USEC routings only if cost structures make sense, given steeper recent rate declines but longer transit times.