Summary
This week, ocean freight activity continues to be shaped by post-tariff pause adjustments and shifting capacity strategies. With the U.S.–China tariff pause extended to August 1, carriers front-loaded shipments, prompting early peak season dynamics. However, as the rush slows, capacity has outpaced demand, pushing spot rates over 40% lower from June highs—offering a temporary benefit for importers.
U.S. and Canadian importers should be alert to softening trans-Pacific rates, tightening capacity in August, and targeted vessel deployments. Later sections delve into blank sailings, port conditions, rate forecast trends, and carrier service changes.
Key highlights:
- Trans‑Pacific spot rates down ~40% from peak; capacity now oversupplied
- Carriers trimming tonnage for August as the import surge subsides
Capacity & Congestion
Carriers are actively carving out capacity from the Asia–North America West Coast (USWC) trade lane. A scheduled reduction in deployed tonnage is expected for August amidst softening spot rates and weaker retail import forecasts. While blank sailing programs aren’t widespread yet, the capacity pullback is a preemptive adjustment to prevent oversupply.
Port-wise, there’s notable relief in vessel congestion. Wait times at Vancouver have eased, and U.S. gateway ports—like Los Angeles and Long Beach—report steady operations despite recent volume surges. Inbound container volumes remain above historical averages, but port throughput continues to perform efficiently. Overall, capacity availability is stabilizing and lead times are gradually normalizing.
Key Highlights:
- U.S.‑bound trans‑Pacific capacity now oversupplied—carriers cutting tonnage in August
- Blank sailings limited for now—capacity pull made via fleet redeployment
- Congestion easing at Vancouver; U.S. West Coast ports maintaining schedule reliability
Pricing & Rates
After peaking in early June, trans-Pacific spot rates have fallen sharply. Asia–U.S. West Coast rates dropped approximately 60% from highs (now about 40% below the June peak), while East Coast rates fell by around 16% week-on-week. This decline is tied to the end of rapid tariff-pause–driven frontloading.
Earlier in June, spot rates surged over 100% on some trade lanes due to pre-tariff shipment rushes, but have since tapered. General Rate Increases (GRIs) or Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) previously planned for early July have largely been postponed amid weakened demand and excess capacity.
Key Highlights:
- Trans‑Pacific spot rates down ~40% from June highs, now easing
- Earlier surge (~100%+ rises) from tariff-driven frontloading has reversed
- Planned GRIs for July postponed amid weak demand and excess capacity
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carriers are proactively adjusting capacity allocation:
- Trans-Pacific redeployment: With demand waning, carriers are reallocating vessels away from Asia–USWC and trimming August capacity.
- Targeted services: One carrier launched a new expedited service from China to Los Angeles, aimed at e-commerce shippers needing faster transit.
- Alliances shifting: One major carrier exited vessel-sharing agreements on India services to refocus on reliability improvements on U.S. East Coast runs.
Reliability across major carriers remains in the mid‑60% range. Overall strategy is defensive: scale back general capacity while selectively enhancing premium services.
Key Highlights:
- Carriers cutting August trans‑Pacific tonnage; proactive capacity control
- New expedited China‑LA e-commerce service introduced
- Alliance restructures shift focus to U.S. East Coast reliability
Operational Disruptions
No major disruptions reported this week. Weather on the Pacific coast remained calm, and equipment availability (reefer containers, chassis) was stable. No terminal slowdowns or labor-related issues occurred.
Closing Note & Recommendations
Importers should capitalize on the current window of eased rates—but prepare for capacity tightening in August. Key focus areas:
- Lock in short-term trans-Pacific bookings now, before carriers reduce capacity further.
- Monitor vessel deployment strategies, especially on Asia–USWC, and shift to expedited services if timing is critical.
