Summary

The ocean freight market showed signs of softening this week as the recent surge in shipping rates appears to have plateaued. Spot rates on major Trans-Pacific routes, particularly from Asia to the U.S. West Coast, have begun to ease after reaching elevated levels earlier this quarter. This follows a sharp rate increase in mid-May, driven by a temporary U.S. tariff reduction that sparked an import surge.

With demand cooling and carriers' attempts to implement price hikes largely unsuccessful in mid-June. We expect carriers to start to actively manage capacity to stabilize the market, but port congestion challenges persist in key North American gateways.

Key Highlights:

• Spot rates on Asia–U.S. West Coast routes show signs of easing after recent peaks.
• Reduction in extra loaders in late June to balance capacity with demand.

Pricing & Rates

The recent cooling of spot rates marks a shift from the rapid increases observed earlier in the season. Following the temporary tariff-driven import surge in May, rates began to soften as demand normalized. Carriers’ attempts to implement General Rate Increases (GRIs) in mid-June were largely unsuccessful, reflecting market pushback and lower-than-expected booking volumes.

Carriers are adjusting service offerings in response to market conditions. The Premier Alliance (HMM, Yang Ming, Ocean Network Express) recently launched its new PS5 service on the Trans-Pacific West Coast trade, accompanied by network adjustments to its PS4 and PS6 services to optimize coverage and scheduling.

Looking ahead, the National Retail Federation forecasts an early peak in U.S. imports, with volumes expected to crest in July. From August onward, softer import demand is anticipated, as importers seek to avoid inventory overhangs amid signs of weakening consumer spending.

Bullet Highlights:

• Spot rates on Asia–U.S. West Coast routes are trending downward after recent highs.
• Mid-June GRI efforts by carriers saw limited success.
• U.S. import volumes are expected to peak in July, with a slowdown forecast for late summer.

Closing Note

For U.S. and Canadian importers, close attention to blank sailings, elimination of services, rate fluctuations, and port conditions remains essential. The increase in blank sailings reflects carriers' active management of capacity, which could tighten space availability on short notice despite current softening in rates.

With import volumes forecast to peak earlier this year and signs of softer demand in late summer, shippers are encouraged to align booking strategies with these evolving trends. Maintaining flexibility, monitoring port congestion, and staying informed on carrier service changes will help mitigate disruptions and optimize supply chain performance in the weeks ahead.