Summary
Eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates continued to unwind their November spike, with cumulative declines of roughly one-third over the past two weeks, despite a small uptick in the most recent readings. Overcapacity and soft U.S. import demand remain the dominant themes, pushing carriers to rely on smaller, more frequent rate moves and blank sailings to prevent a deeper rate slide.
At the same time, China’s largest ports are operating at record throughput levels, highlighting a widening gap between strong export capacity in Asia and muted demand in North America. This imbalance reinforces short-term pricing pressure on eastbound lanes even as Asian gateways demonstrate the ability to rapidly scale volumes once demand rebounds.
Operational conditions across major U.S. and Canadian ports were largely stable this week, with no widespread congestion events. A notable development came from Vancouver, where a new vessel scheduling system is being rolled out to provide terminals with earlier visibility into arrivals, supporting smoother labor and equipment planning.
Highlights
- Trans-Pacific spot rates remain materially lower than early November, with only a modest late-week rebound
- Asian export hubs continue to post record volumes despite subdued North American demand
- Port of Vancouver introduces extended look-ahead vessel scheduling to reduce congestion risk
Capacity & Congestion
Capacity across the trans-Pacific continues to exceed current demand levels. Although carriers have increased blank sailings, available space remains relatively easy to secure on most Asia–North America services. The recent holiday-shortened shipping week further cooled booking activity, reinforcing near-term capacity softness. For importers, this means access to space is generally not a constraint, though sailing-level reliability varies as carriers fine-tune weekly networks.
U.S. import volumes remain on a downward trajectory heading into year-end. Monthly containerized imports are expected to step lower through December and into early 2026, following earlier front-loading of inventory and cautious retail demand outlooks. This trend gives carriers limited leverage on capacity discipline beyond selective sailings cancellations, keeping overall utilization rates uneven.
North American port congestion remains contained. The major U.S. gateways on both coasts are operating without prolonged vessel backlogs, while Canadian ports continue to manage volumes effectively. Vancouver’s introduction of a 96-hour vessel arrival forecasting system stands out as a proactive operational improvement, aimed at reducing yard congestion and smoothing rail and truck flows during inbound surges.
In Asia, port performance remains strong. China’s largest gateways are moving unprecedented volumes, underscoring how quickly outbound capacity could scale when U.S. and Canadian demand reaccelerates.
Capacity & Congestion – Key Takeaways
- Asia–North America capacity remains loose, with demand—not space—being the limiting factor
- North American ports are operating smoothly, with incremental process improvements underway
- Asian mega-ports continue to demonstrate high export readiness
Pricing & Rates
Trans-Pacific spot rates remain under sustained downward pressure. Recent declines have erased most of the gains seen during November’s brief rally, returning pricing to levels materially below recent peaks. A small late-week rebound signals that carriers are attempting to establish a near-term floor, but momentum remains fragile.
Rather than large, one-time hikes, carriers are increasingly experimenting with smaller, more frequent attempts to stabilize pricing. These incremental moves are designed to encourage shipper acceptance while limiting steep rollbacks. East Coast pricing has also softened, narrowing the traditional rate gap between U.S. west and east coast routings and giving importers greater flexibility when choosing gateways.
Looking ahead, structural overcapacity remains a central issue. With fleet growth continuing to outpace demand growth over the medium term, pricing fundamentals remain weak. Short-term volatility is still expected around seasonal events, network changes, or sudden demand shifts, but underlying pressure on spot rates continues to favor shippers.
Pricing & Rates – Key Takeaways
- Asia–U.S. spot rates remain significantly below recent highs despite minor rebounds
- Carriers favor smaller, more frequent rate moves over large GRIs
- Ongoing fleet growth keeps medium-term pricing pressure tilted downward
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carrier strategy continues to center on tactical capacity management. Blank sailings remain the primary lever for aligning supply with demand, resulting in more variability at the voyage level rather than large-scale service withdrawals. For importers, this reinforces the importance of monitoring weekly carrier schedules rather than relying on fixed service assumptions.
Carriers are also refining product differentiation strategies, with greater emphasis on service reliability and network consistency. Some lines are actively repositioning vessels across trade lanes in response to profitability pressure, with weaker corridors seeing more frequent adjustments. This dynamic increases the need for forward planning when locking in routings and transit expectations.
Uncertainty around potential route normalization through the Red Sea continues to influence broader network planning. A meaningful return to shorter routings would effectively add capacity back into the market, likely leading carriers to offset with further sailing management measures.
Carrier Strategy – Key Takeaways
- Blank sailings remain the dominant capacity-control tool
- Vessel deployment and port pairings are becoming more fluid week-to-week
- Route normalization remains a key variable with pricing and capacity implications
Commentary & Practical Guidance for Importers
The current market environment reflects soft demand, ample capacity, and cautious carrier discipline, particularly on Asia–North America lanes. For U.S. and Canadian importers, this creates a favorable cost environment, but one that demands close attention to sailing reliability and weekly service changes.
With volumes expected to remain muted into early 2026, importers should take advantage of flexible pricing while avoiding complacency around schedules. Proactive planning and diversified routing strategies remain critical.
Recommended actions for importers:
- Closely track blank sailings on Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC services and pad lead times accordingly
- Use the narrower spread between west and east coast routings to optimize total landed cost, not just ocean rates
- Coordinate closely with forwarders and port partners to leverage scheduling and planning tools that improve predictability
In short, this is a buyer-leaning market from a pricing perspective, but one where disciplined monitoring and proactive planning are essential to protect service reliability and inventory timelines.
