Summary
Ocean freight conditions for U.S. and Canadian importers remained volatile heading into year-end, with carriers leaning heavily on capacity discipline to stabilize pricing in a seasonally softer demand window. The most consistent theme across the market was selective tightening via blank sailings—especially on Asia–North America lanes—paired with early pre–Lunar New Year (LNY) booking signals that are beginning to influence January and February planning. The Asia–U.S. market continues to behave as “two coasts,” with West Coast conditions firming while East Coast dynamics softened temporarily, reflecting differences in demand patterns and how carriers are managing capacity.
Service reliability trends continue to improve gradually at a global level, which is relevant for importer planning as it helps frame how much schedule buffer to assume in Q1. While overall reliability is trending upward, delays remain uneven by trade lane and port, reinforcing the need for conservative lead-time planning as carriers adjust networks and selectively test routing strategies.
Highlights:- Blank sailings increased on trans-Pacific services and are expected to remain elevated in the near term.
- Rate trends remain mixed by corridor, but carrier capacity controls are providing short-term support.
Capacity & Congestion
Carriers continue to manage deployed capacity proactively rather than pursuing volume growth. Trans-Pacific blank sailings increased again during the week, with further cancellations already signaled in forward schedules. This approach reflects a deliberate strategy to protect vessel utilization during a softer demand window and to position networks ahead of anticipated LNY cargo flows.
For importers, the operational risk is less about systemic congestion and more about lane-specific service gaps. When weekly sailings are blanked or consolidated, shippers face higher roll risk and fewer recovery options if bookings miss cutoffs. Capacity expectations also differ by coast: additional capacity is projected to flow into the U.S. West Coast, while the U.S. East Coast is seeing more aggressive blanking in forward schedules, increasing the likelihood of skipped weeks on certain services.
Port conditions across the U.S. remain uneven. Southern California gateways continue to operate without severe vessel backlogs, but empty container appointment availability remains a friction point. On the East and Southeast coasts, elevated import dwell times persist at certain ports, extending end-to-end lead times even when berth congestion appears manageable. Rail fluidity is generally better at Northeastern gateways, providing some relief for inland moves routed through those ports.
Highlights:- Trans-Pacific blank sailings are rising, with additional cancellations already visible in upcoming weeks.
- East Coast capacity management is more aggressive than on the West Coast, increasing the risk of missed weekly sailings.
- Port congestion is localized rather than systemic, but dwell times remain elevated at select gateways.
Pricing & Rates
Rate behavior during the week was volatile but supported, reflecting carrier efforts to prevent further erosion through capacity discipline. Spot pricing on Asia–U.S. West Coast lanes strengthened week over week, while East Coast pricing eased modestly before showing signs of stabilization. This divergence mirrors the different capacity strategies being applied on each coast.
Across major indices and market commentary, late-December pricing trends pointed toward relative stabilization following stronger gains earlier in the month. Early LNY bookings are providing a near-term floor for rates, with market participants expecting either modest additional upside or continued stability rather than a sharp pullback.
However, the sustainability of announced General Rate Increases remains uncertain. While capacity reductions have helped slow downward pressure, demand levels are not uniformly strong enough to guarantee broad-based GRI retention. As a result, pricing outcomes continue to vary significantly by lane, carrier, and sailing week.
Highlights:- West Coast spot rates firmed week over week; East Coast rates softened slightly before stabilizing.
- Trans-Pacific pricing stabilized after earlier gains, supported by early LNY cargo planning.
- GRIs remain difficult to sustain without stronger underlying demand, even amid blank sailings.
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carrier strategy remains focused on balancing utilization protection with network positioning for early 2026 demand. Blank sailings continue to absorb capacity and support pricing, while extended voyage times on certain routings effectively remove additional tonnage from the market. These dynamics are encouraging some importers to pull cargo forward ahead of LNY to avoid potential space constraints.
At the same time, carriers are increasingly differentiating service offerings based on reliability. Several major operators have expanded premium products tied to on-time performance guarantees, signaling a broader industry shift toward monetizing schedule certainty rather than competing solely on base freight rates. This trend is particularly relevant for importers managing high-value or time-sensitive SKUs.
Global schedule reliability metrics show incremental improvement from earlier lows, but performance remains inconsistent by carrier and trade lane. Importers should continue to expect variability and plan with buffers, especially on services exposed to frequent blank sailings or ports with higher dwell times.
Highlights:- Carriers continue to deploy blank sailings to protect utilization while positioning for LNY demand.
- Reliability-linked premium services are expanding and may become a more common contracting lever.
- Schedule reliability is improving but remains uneven, reinforcing the need for conservative planning.
Operational Disruptions
No single operational disruption dominated the week across North America. Instead, friction continues to stem from appointment constraints, equipment repositioning challenges, and localized high dwell times. The primary operational risk for importers remains schedule volatility rather than acute port shutdowns or widespread congestion.
Highlights:- Empty return appointment availability remains constrained in parts of Southern California.
- Elevated dwell at select East and Southeast ports continues to extend total transit times.
Commentary
For U.S. and Canadian importers, the immediate priority is maintaining booking flexibility in an environment where carriers are actively controlling capacity and weekly service strings can be removed with limited notice. Confirming cutoffs earlier, identifying backup sailings, and aligning inventory planning with realistic lead-time assumptions are increasingly important—particularly on Asia–USEC routings where blanked capacity is more pronounced.
Looking ahead, early LNY booking activity suggests that near-term rate and space firmness may persist, even if overall demand remains uneven. Importers should closely monitor blank sailing announcements on Asia–North America services, track port-specific dwell and equipment constraints, and evaluate whether premium reliability products make sense for shipments where the cost of delay materially outweighs incremental freight expense.
