Global container markets softened again this week, with Trans-Pacific spot indices declining and nearly all recent GRI gains eroding. Carriers have shortened the rate validity period from two weeks to one week, and have pushed rate increases for both Dec 1st and Dec 8th - though it’s unclear whether the rates will hold. Schedule reliability also dipped back into the low-60% range globally, per Sea-Intelligence, reinforcing that weaker demand does not automatically translate into predictable lead times.
U.S. inbound volumes remain muted heading into December. NRF projections show double-digit year-over-year declines for November and December TEUs, creating broadly fluid port conditions despite pockets of congestion at Mobile, Seattle, and Vancouver. For importers, the setup is: soft pricing, ample capacity, and variable schedules.
Highlights
Carriers continue to manage oversupply with targeted blank sailings—particularly on Asia–North America—though overall capacity remains more than sufficient due to ongoing new-vessel deliveries and weaker Q4 demand. Sea-Intelligence and Seatrade note that supply growth continues to outpace TEU-mile demand, keeping utilization in check even as carriers withdraw select sailings.
Port conditions across North America remain mostly fluid. NRF’s year-end forecasts show enough volume softness to prevent major congestion, while operational reports indicate short wait times at most U.S. and Canadian gateways. Vancouver, despite some lingering delays, is improving through a port-wide vessel scheduling system. Congestion remains localized, not systemic.
Key Takeaways
Trans-Pacific pricing softened further this week. Freightos, ICIS, and Global Trade reporting indicate 6% weekly declines on Asia–USWC benchmarks and broader softening across Asia–USEC despite a brief index uptick. This follows last week’s steeper 15–30% declines noted across some U.S. West Coast lanes. Drewry’s global composite index slipped another ~2% week-over-week, citing pressure on both Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe trades.
Outside North America, carriers issued selective surcharges and rate restorations (e.g., Australia, Pacific Islands), signaling attempts to defend revenue where demand is less depressed. But with U.S./Canada inbound volumes projected to fall into early 2026, the dominant trend for Trans-Pacific pricing remains easing to falling.
Key Takeaways
Carrier strategy remains focused on tactical capacity control rather than large-scale network changes. Sea-Intelligence’s October reliability update shows performance slipping to ~61%, with top carriers such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd maintaining a reliability advantage in the mid-60% to low-70% range. Blank sailings and selective GRIs remain the primary levers for yield protection.
On the network side, carriers are cautiously preparing for a potential return to Suez routings (notably Maersk), while West Coast and Canadian ports continue rolling out operational tools—like Vancouver’s new vessel scheduling platform—to improve berth planning. These adjustments help incrementally, but near-term schedules remain volatile.
Key Takeaways
The major operational event this week was a containership fire on the ONE Henry Hudson at the Port of Los Angeles, now contained. While not causing system-wide delays, importers using the affected terminals should expect minor, localized impacts. In Latin America, port protests and blockades continue to introduce sporadic delay risk for services dependent on transshipment hubs in Mexico and the west coast of South America.
Key Takeaways
The current market favors importers: pricing is soft, capacity is available, and most ports are fluid. But schedule reliability remains too inconsistent to rely on tight delivery windows. The combination of blank-sailing volatility and low-60% global reliability means importers should actively plan buffers into Q1 2026 shipments.
Practical guidance: