Trans-Pacific spot trends turned higher again this week, with multiple sources pointing to a mid- to high-teens week-over-week lift as carriers’ October capacity discipline flowed through to early November pricing. Schedule reliability continues to hover around the mid-60% range globally, limiting some volatility but still requiring buffer time in plans. For U.S./Canadian importers, the net effect is a firmer short-term spot environment and continued need to plan around selective capacity withdrawals.
What this means for importers:
• Expect near-term rate firmness (mid-teens % WoW) and keep GRIs/PSS on the watch list; negotiate flexibility in allocations.
• Reliability is plateaued (~65%); pad lead times and prioritize services with stronger on-time performance.
Carriers’ blank sailings and capacity pulls executed through October are still shaping early-November conditions. Industry tracking shows schedule reliability essentially flat around ~65% with average late-arrival delays near five days—stable but not “fully normal,” and consistent with continued tactical capacity management.
Sea-Intelligence’s latest notes also highlight widening dispersion between the most- and least-reliable carriers, meaning the choice of operator matters more for on-time performance than the global average alone would suggest. For importers, pairing time-sensitive SKUs with higher-reliability services remains prudent.
While no acute, system-wide North American port congestion spikes were reported this week, the combination of elevated blank sailings and only mid-60s reliability continues to create occasional bunching and schedule gaps. Build slack into door-delivery dates and monitor specific terminals for localized slowdowns. (Context from recent reliability releases.)
Highlights
• Global schedule reliability ~65% in September; average late-arrival delay ~4.9 days.
• Carrier reliability spread is widening—operator selection is increasingly consequential.
Trans-Pacific spot trends rose again this week. Freightos/Container-News and FreightWaves both reported double-digit week-over-week increases (roughly +15% to +20%) on Asia-North America lanes, attributing firmness to earlier GRIs sticking and ongoing capacity discipline. Avoid quoting absolute $ values in contracts; frame discussions around percentage deltas and service quality.
Given the still-soft macro backdrop, sustainability of these increases will depend on carriers’ ability to maintain skipped sailings and manage utilization. Keep an eye on additional GRI/PSS signaling through mid-November; some carriers had previously telegraphed November hikes, and this week’s firmness increases the odds that they try to carry momentum.
Highlights
• Trans-Pacific spot levels rose roughly mid-teens % week-over-week.
• Capacity discipline (blank sailings) remains the key lever supporting rates.
Carrier behavior remains focused on utilization protection rather than network expansion. Recent analytics point to sustained service instability compared with pre-2020 norms and to a broader spread in reliability across carriers—both consistent with continued tactical blanking and rotation tweaks. Expect more ad-hoc voyage cancellations than wholesale new service launches on the Trans-Pacific in the near term.
Sea-Intelligence’s late-October read also underscores that the overall on-time plateau masks variability by operator and loop. Importers should actively compare reliability records when choosing among nominally similar weekly strings, and consider splitting volumes to hedge against a single service’s schedule slippage.
Highlights
• Carriers continue to defend utilization via selective blank sailings and schedule tweaks.
• Reliability dispersion by carrier is increasing—evaluate operators beyond headline averages.
The near-term setup favors shippers who plan proactively: capacity discipline is sticking just enough to keep spot trends firm, while schedule reliability remains only modestly improved versus historical norms. For time-critical freight, secure allocations on higher-reliability loops even if it means accepting a modest premium; for replenishment freight, maintain flexibility to ride out week-to-week swings.
Action checklist for the coming week:
• Monitor blank sailing advisories and roll pools on core Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC strings; keep 7–10 days buffer on destination delivery dates.
• Use percentage-based triggers (e.g., ±10%) in spot/FAK conversations and watch for mid-November GRI/PSS notices.
• Where feasible, split bookings across two services/carriers to mitigate reliability dispersion risk highlighted in the latest analytics.