Summary

Trans-Pacific spot rates continued to fall sharply this week as early-November General Rate Increases lost momentum amid softer U.S. import demand and abundant vessel capacity. Several major indices indicated double-digit percentage declines on Asia–North America lanes, particularly to the U.S. West Coast.

At the same time, long-term contract rate benchmarks remained comparatively stable, especially on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes, where aggressive blank sailings helped carriers keep average realized pricing steadier than on the Trans-Pacific.

With U.S. import forecasts showing lower volumes through Q4 and into Q1, the combination of softening demand and elevated capacity points to continued downward pressure on Trans-Pacific spot rates. Carriers are responding mainly through blank sailings and targeted service adjustments rather than large-scale capacity withdrawals.

Highlights

• Trans-Pacific spot rates are down significantly, with several lanes seeing 20–30% week-over-week declines.
• Carriers have cancelled roughly 7% of scheduled global mainline sailings over the next several weeks, nearly half of them on Asia–North America routes.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Over the next five weeks, carriers have withdrawn about 7% of scheduled global sailings across the major East–West trades. Nearly half of these blank sailings are on Asia–North America eastbound routes, followed by Asia–Europe/Mediterranean and the Transatlantic. These cancellations are aimed at counteracting weak demand and rising effective capacity rather than addressing congestion.

Despite these cuts, overall capacity on Asia–North America remains high due to ongoing vessel deliveries and moderate import volumes. U.S. port throughput projections indicate declining inbound TEU volumes through the remainder of Q4, easing pressure on terminals and contributing to smoother operations across major gateways.

North American ports continue to report broadly fluid conditions, with manageable dwell times and limited vessel queues. The primary cause of variability this week is schedule changes from blank sailings, not port congestion.

Capacity & Congestion – Key Points

• Asia–North America blank sailings continue to rise as carriers attempt to balance oversupply.
• U.S. and Canadian terminals remain fluid, with no major congestion reported.
• Lower inbound TEU volumes are expected through Q1, further easing operational pressure.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Trans-Pacific spot rates fell sharply this week, with some services to the U.S. West Coast dropping 15–30% week-over-week and U.S. East Coast lanes seeing high single-digit to low double-digit declines. Composite freight indices also showed a week-over-week decrease, reflecting softening spot conditions.

By contrast, contract or long-term averages on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean trades remained relatively stable or slightly higher due to more concentrated blank sailings. This divergence highlights a stronger pricing discipline in Europe-linked trades compared to the Trans-Pacific, where supply remains abundant.

General Rate Increases introduced earlier in the month have largely eroded, as supply continues to exceed demand. Carriers are attempting to stabilize rates through repeated GRI announcements and selective capacity cuts, but downward pressure is expected to persist through the next several weeks.

Pricing & Rates – Key Points

• Trans-Pacific spot rates to the U.S. West Coast fell roughly 15–30% week-over-week.
• Asia–Europe and Mediterranean rates remain relatively stable, supported by blank sailings. Most early-November GRI gains on Trans-Pacific lanes have already dissipated.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Carriers continue deploying a mix of blank sailings, GRIs, and targeted capacity adjustments to stabilize utilization in an oversupplied market. While overall blank sailing levels remain moderate, the timing and concentration of these cancellations—particularly on Asia–North America—underscore a strategy of “fine-tuning” rather than major network overhauls.

Fleet growth among the largest carriers continues to shape deployment decisions, as new tonnage enters service across global trades. This long-term increase in available capacity will remain a key factor influencing pricing dynamics in 2026.

Red Sea and Suez routing considerations continue to influence planning. As carriers gradually prepare to return more services to the Suez routing over time, they are closely monitoring potential port congestion and yard pressure at major European hubs. These dynamics could affect all-water Asia–USEC transit times once volume patterns normalize.

Carrier Strategy - Key Points

• Carriers are using blank sailings and tactical GRIs to manage surplus capacity.
• Large fleet expansions continue to raise long-term utilization pressure across trades.
• Suez-related planning remains cautious due to risks of port bunching when full routings resume.

Commentary & Practical Takeaways

This week’s environment is marked by soft demand, ample capacity, and fast-easing Trans-Pacific spot rates. Importers with flexibility can benefit from lower short-term pricing, especially on services to the U.S. West Coast. However, volatility remains likely as carriers attempt to re-establish GRIs and manage utilization through rolling blank sailings.

Operationally, the lack of major port congestion in North America is welcome news. The main focus for importers should now shift toward anticipating schedule shifts, adjusting lead times, and ensuring routing diversification—particularly on all-water Asia–USEC services that may experience timing variability tied to Suez-related adjustments.

Recommended Importer Actions

1. Monitor blank sailings closely on Asia–North America services and build buffer time into planning.
2. Take advantage of softer spot rates, but consider partial term coverage to hedge Q1 volatility.
3. Watch Asia–USEC transit times, especially as Suez routings evolve.
4. Prepare 2026 contract strategies with lower import demand in mind, which may improve negotiation leverage.