Shippabo Newsletter 11/17/2025

Summary

Trans-Pacific markets softened this week as early-November GRIs lost momentum. Spot benchmarks show slight week-over-week declines, driven by ample capacity and flat demand. Capacity remains high across Asia–North America, with carriers relying on modest blank sailings rather than major cuts.

Port conditions across the U.S. and Canada remain stable with low congestion and short vessel waits. Inland rail and chassis availability remain the primary operational pressure points.

Highlights:

• Asia–US spot rates are easing after brief GRI-driven increases.
• U.S. coastal ports operating smoothly; inland networks remain uneven.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Blank sailings remain modest—about 7% of East–West sailings withdrawn over the coming weeks, most on the Trans-Pacific. This limited capacity reduction, paired with soft demand, continues to support easy space conditions for importers.

TPEB capacity has rebounded to well above post–Golden Week levels and is expected to stay strong through November. Carriers continue to offer space at normal levels, with some “specials” emerging to fill vessels.

U.S. and Canadian ports are showing low congestion, with vessel waits generally under a day. Rail and chassis constraints remain the more significant reliability issues.

Key Takeaways:

• Only limited blank sailings; space availability remains high
• U.S./Canadian ports report low congestion.
• Inland rail and chassis tightness still worth monitoring.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Early-month GRIs generated temporary increases, but most have already begun to fade. Asia–US spot levels are trending down week-over-week as capacity outpaces demand.

Benchmark indices show small percentage declines on Asia–US lanes, while Asia–Europe trades remain comparatively firmer. Carriers continue to publish GRIs, but sustained rate traction remains limited.

Key Takeaways:

• Asia–US rates are softening after early-month bumps.
• Carriers are struggling to hold GRIs in an oversupplied market.
• Asia–Europe remains firmer, but trans-Pacific is largely buyer-friendly.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Carriers are making small, tactical adjustments rather than major network changes. Notable updates include service rotation tweaks—such as updated port sequences on select Asia–USEC loops—to improve schedule reliability.

Most carriers continue to rely on small blank sailings, port omissions, and promotional specials instead of large capacity withdrawals. A large global orderbook continues to pressure utilization and limits carriers’ leverage on pricing.

Key Takeaways:

• Expect incremental service adjustments, not major overhauls.
• Carriers relying on tactical blank sailings and port skips.
• Large fleet growth maintains shipper leverage.
  
  

Commentary & Practical Recommendations

The Asia–North America market remains firmly tilted toward shippers: plentiful capacity, easing spot rates, and stable ports offer a favorable environment for securing competitive rates and predictable transit times.

For importers, focus on:

1. Monitoring blank sailings and rotation changes to avoid surprises on specific sailings.
2. Leveraging short-term rate flexibility, as carriers struggle to hold increases.
3. Prioritizing inland reliability, splitting gateways or adjusting routings where rail or chassis issues persist.

Overall, conditions heading into late November favor importers who maintain flexibility and keep a close eye on weekly service updates.