Shippabo Newsletter 11/10/2025

Summary

Trans-Pacific spot rates rose again this week as carriers pushed through new GRIs while selectively tightening capacity. This came despite a tangible softening in the market, as well as softer import demand expectations from U.S. retailers, who continue to signal a slower finish to Q4 and a muted start to the new year. Carrier outlooks remain mixed: some point to overcapacity pressure from incoming vessels, while others highlight resilient China export flows and improved operational efficiency.

Operationally, U.S. and Canadian ports remained fluid. With inbound volumes projected to decline through November and December, terminal congestion and inland network strain are expected to remain low.

Highlights

• Trans-Pacific spot rates increased week-over-week as carriers blended GRIs with targeted blank sailings.
• Forecasts show November–December as the slowest inbound-volume months of 2025 for North America, reducing congestion risks.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Carriers continued to balance capacity with targeted blank sailings across the Asia–North America corridor. While blank activity is not as heavy as in past tight cycles, the combination of trimmed sailings and modest demand was enough to tighten space on select departures and support rate increases.

North American port performance remains stable. No major congestion has developed on the U.S. West Coast, and current projections for lower inbound volumes through the end of the year should help maintain low yard density, faster turn times, and predictable vessel operations.

Smaller niche operators that entered the trans-Pacific market during the high-rate years continue to scale back or exit specific services. These reductions, some announced earlier in the fall and now taking effect, remove marginal capacity and can amplify the week-to-week impact of GRIs and blanked sailings.

Highlights

• Asia–NA trade sees selective blank sailings and tighter utilization.
• U.S. and Canadian ports remain fluid, with declining inbound volumes easing pressure on terminals.
• Pullbacks by smaller operators continue to reduce marginal weekly slots on certain trans-Pacific strings.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

Spot pricing on Asia–North America lanes increased again this week, generally in the low- to mid-single-digit range compared to last week. The uptick reflects a new round of GRIs combined with tighter space driven by blank sailings.

Carrier commercial signals diverged: several lines emphasized weaker forward fundamentals due to newbuild deliveries, while others highlighted stable China-origin demand and improved cost structures. For importers, this creates an environment where pricing may continue to fluctuate by lane and by week, rather than follow a consistent linear trend.

Given expectations for mid-teens year-over-year declines in North American import volumes in November and December, rate acceleration is likely to remain constrained unless carriers withdraw additional capacity or aggressively bunch sailings.

Highlights

• Asia–US spot rates rose low-/mid-single digits week-over-week on GRI activity and selective space tightening.
• Carrier sentiment is split between overcapacity concerns and pockets of resilient demand.
• Softer import forecasts into year-end limit the potential for sustained upward rate momentum.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Carriers remained focused on tactical network adjustments—primarily blank sailings and vessel swaps within alliance structures. A tight charter market for larger vessels continues to constrain rapid capacity additions, indirectly supporting utilization levels on major Asia–North America services.

Carrier strategy signals remain mixed. Some lines are preparing for a more challenging rate environment as newbuild tonnage enters the global fleet, while others report improving operational reliability and steadier export flows out of China. These contrasting positions suggest that lane-level performance and carrier-specific strategies will continue to diverge.

Global schedule reliability has plateaued at roughly mid-60% levels, with a widening gap between the highest-performing and lowest-performing carriers. This makes reliability an increasingly important factor when selecting services beyond just rate and transit time.

Highlights

• Tight charter market for large vessels keeps incremental capacity additions selective.
• Diverging carrier strategies reflect uneven demand signals and varying cost positions.
• Global schedule reliability steady in the mid-60% range with wide carrier-to-carrier variance.
  
  

Commentary

What to do now:

1. Book 2–3 weeks ahead on Asia–USWC/USEC lanes. GRIs, selective blank sailings, and the gradual withdrawal of niche operators can create short-lived space tightness. Early booking helps avoid rollovers and reduces exposure to last-minute rate volatility.
2. Incorporate reliability into routing decisions. With performance varying widely across carriers, route selection based on consistent on-time performance over the past 8–12 weeks can meaningfully reduce variability in door-to-door timelines.
   
   

Looking ahead (next 2–6 weeks):

• Rates: Expect continued GRI attempts and short-term surcharges, though softer seasonal demand should keep upward momentum in check unless carriers intensify blank sailings.
• Capacity/operations: Core alliance services remain adequately supplied, and with no major congestion at U.S. ports, importers should expect normal dwell patterns with standard holiday-season variability.