Summary
With the pending arrival of Golden Week in China, the market showed mixed signals: carriers are reacting to softer eastbound demand by increasing blank sailings and trimming capacity on the trans-Pacific, while overall schedule reliability and port queues remain uneven — easing at some West Coast gateways but rising elsewhere. Spot rate momentum cooled on several trans-Pacific trades as carriers attempt to rebalance supply and demand. Key implications for U.S. and Canadian importers are to watch blank-sailing notices and carrier capacity re-allocations closely for 30–45-day forward bookings and to avoid assuming rate stability — short windows of tightening remain possible.
Highlights:
- Carriers have increased blank sailings and capacity reductions on trans-Pacific strings to counter declining spot rates.
- Port congestion remains patchy: LA/LB queues eased modestly while dwell times increased at several other gateways.
Capacity & Congestion
Carriers are responding to weaker eastbound volumes with targeted capacity removals, particularly on trans-Pacific services, as they aim to stabilize spot rates. These adjustments include both cancelled sailings and vessel redeployments.
Port congestion remains uneven across major North American gateways. The number of containerships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach has declined modestly, while congestion is increasing at other ports. Vancouver and select Pacific Northwest terminals are reporting gradual improvement in vessel dwell times, but inland intermodal and chassis availability remain limited in certain regions.
What this means for importers:
- Expect short-term volatility in capacity for bookings 2–6 weeks out. Carriers may cancel or consolidate sailings with limited notice.
- For time-sensitive shipments, consider alternate gateways or services to reduce exposure to congestion-related delays.
Pricing & Rates
Spot rate momentum softened this week on many eastbound trades following several weeks of elevated seasonal demand. Carriers’ capacity reductions are helping slow the recent slide in rates, but conditions remain mixed across lanes. Rate changes continue to show significant week-to-week percentage swings depending on direction and trade route.
Carriers have signaled potential General Rate Increases (GRIs) and seasonal surcharges as a defensive measure, though implementation success varies. Shippers are showing greater preference for short-term or flexible contract arrangements to retain negotiation flexibility amid fluctuating capacity.
What this means for importers:
- Rate direction will remain lane-specific. Plan for periods of both tightening and easing depending on carrier actions and demand strength.
- For contract shipments, consider shorter-term or hybrid agreements to maintain flexibility.
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carriers continue adjusting services to align with demand trends. Several have consolidated trans-Pacific sailings or temporarily reduced frequency to maintain vessel utilization and rate discipline. These changes are largely tactical rather than permanent network shifts.
Some carriers are reallocating tonnage to more profitable trades or temporarily reducing capacity on underperforming routes. Schedule reliability remains variable, with punctuality improving in some lanes but slipping where congestion or equipment imbalances persist.
What this means for importers:
- Monitor weekly carrier advisories and blank-sailing notices closely; even a few cancellations can tighten available space.
- For high-priority cargo, favor services with higher reliability metrics or premium products offering guaranteed load options.
Commentary
The market is entering a transitional phase. A dip in eastbound volumes has led carriers to use selective blank sailings rather than broad-scale capacity cuts, creating an environment where short-term rate and space fluctuations remain possible. For U.S. and Canadian importers, this means staying alert to operational changes and maintaining agility in booking strategies.
Recommendations:
- Track blank sailings weekly and confirm bookings early for time-sensitive cargo.
- Reassess contract structures to balance stability with flexibility.
