Shippabo Newsletter 10/27/2025

Summary

Trans-Pacific conditions remained broadly soft, but carriers briefly stabilized spot levels with mid-month GRIs. Rates declined through early October, followed by modest week-over-week increases into October 23 as GRIs took hold. Meanwhile, smaller carriers continued to withdraw from select lanes, and schedule reliability held in the mid-60% range globally. U.S. West Coast throughput stayed solid in September, suggesting inbound demand remains resilient even as pricing wobbles.

For importers, this means capacity is available but can tighten temporarily around blank sailings and GRIs. Transit predictability has improved compared to 2024, though importers should continue planning with a buffer to account for variability.

Highlights

• Spot levels edged up week-over-week into late October on GRIs after earlier declines.
• Global schedule reliability remained steady around 65%, marking continued improvement from last year.
  
  

Capacity & Congestion

Blank sailings remained elevated this month as carriers balanced soft demand and shifting booking patterns. The effect of earlier cancellations continues to cascade into late October sailings and early November arrivals for Asia–North America routes.

On the capacity side, selective service withdrawals among smaller operators have incrementally tightened options on certain West Coast loops, even as major alliances maintain steady coverage.

At U.S. ports, throughput data for September showed strong cargo flow through Los Angeles and Long Beach with minimal congestion, supporting stable lead times into Southern California. East Coast utilization eased slightly but remains healthy overall.

Highlights

• Asia–West Coast routes still seeing blank sailings into early November; importers should monitor week-specific schedules.
• Los Angeles/Long Beach ports report strong volumes and fluid operations.
• Global reliability remains steady at mid-60% range; importers should plan for potential 4–5 day schedule variability.
  
  

Pricing & Rates

After several weeks of softening through early October, Trans-Pacific spot rates saw a modest week-over-week uptick by October 23 as GRIs took effect. The improvement reflects temporary stabilization rather than a strong rebound, with overall sentiment still cautious.

Looking ahead to early November, weekly rate fluctuations are likely to continue. Carriers are pairing targeted blank sailings with additional GRI attempts, but weak booking demand limits sustained upward movement. Importers should continue timing bookings carefully around GRI windows to optimize landed costs.

Highlights

• Spot rates from Asia rose slightly week-over-week following mid-month GRIs
• Earlier in October, several lanes recorded high single-digit weekly declines before stabilizing.
• Continued week-to-week volatility expected as carriers balance capacity reductions against slow demand.
  
  

Carrier Strategy & Service Updates

Several niche carriers withdrew from Asia–U.S. services this month, trimming available capacity but having minimal overall impact on market coverage. Larger alliance members maintained network stability, though they continue to adjust rotations to balance utilization.

Global schedule reliability remains in the mid-60% range, a significant improvement over 2024. This allows more predictable planning, though delays of several days remain typical on long-haul trades.

The U.S. port fee policy introduced mid-October has prompted minor adjustments in some carriers’ deployment strategies, but no major service disruptions have been observed. Most carriers have kept their regular port calls intact while assessing cost implications.

Highlights

• Smaller carriers exit select trans-Pacific loops; space remains stable on alliance services.
• Schedule reliability steady near 65%, allowing tighter lead-time planning.
• Minor network adjustments as carriers optimize deployment under new U.S. fee structures.
  
  

Commentary

For the coming weeks, importers should continue using tactical booking strategies:

1. Timing vs. GRIs: When schedules allow, compare all-in costs for sailings before and after announced GRIs. The latest increases were limited and may ease again if demand softens.
2. Monitor blank sailings: Even one skipped sailing can add a full week to delivery timelines despite overall stable port conditions. Verify sailing integrity early, particularly on high-demand lanes.
   
   

Actionable guidance for importers

• Keep close watch on blank sailings on Asia–U.S. West Coast routes; secure alternate space when possible.
• Use improved reliability to tighten—but not eliminate—lead-time buffers (5–7 days recommended).
• Review carrier advisories for any new fees or routing adjustments, especially if using vessels with changing deployment plans.