Summary
Trans-Pacific conditions stayed soft this week, with spot levels continuing to drift lower after a brief post–Golden Week uptick. Carriers are preparing new mid-October “rate restoration” efforts, but demand remains subdued, and excess capacity continues to dominate.
Operationally, blank sailings increased into mid-October, tightening space on specific sailings even as overall market capacity remains questionable; recently-announced 100% tariffs on China imports are creating great uncertainty for customers. Importers should expect sailing gaps, variable lead times, and limited short-term rate stability.
A key watch-item for next week is the implementation of new U.S. port fees on Chinese-built vessels, expected to prompt minor service realignments and possible vessel substitutions.
Highlights
- Spot conditions remain under pressure; new rate restoration attempts may see limited success.
- Blank sailings are rising on Asia–North America routes, tightening certain sailings despite broad capacity availability.
Capacity & Congestion
Blank sailings are at elevated levels on major Asia–North America trade lanes, especially as carriers extend post–Golden Week adjustments. The tightening of space on certain loops is creating temporary booking delays, but overall capacity across the trans-Pacific remains ample. Importers may experience uneven availability between weeks, so early bookings remain advisable.
Carriers have been trimming scheduled capacity to curb rate erosion, though these cuts are modest relative to overall supply. The imbalance between available capacity and actual demand continues to pressure vessel utilization rates.
At U.S. and Canadian ports, congestion remains manageable. Los Angeles/Long Beach operations are steady with normal dwell times, while East Coast ports such as Savannah and New York report smooth throughput. In Canada, Vancouver remains stable after summer backlogs cleared. Occasional chassis imbalances persist but have not caused major disruptions.
Capacity & Congestion – Highlights
- Asia–North America blank sailings increased heading into mid-October.
- Carriers maintain slight capacity reductions, though total availability remains high.
- No new congestion events at U.S./Canadian gateways this week.
Pricing & Rates
Spot pricing continues to trend downward after peaking in late September. Early October gains tied to Golden Week blankings have faded, with current rates slipping back toward mid-year levels. Carriers are launching mid-October General Rate Increases (GRIs), but these are expected to face resistance given soft booking activity and weak load factors.
Across major trade lanes, spot levels have declined roughly 15–20% compared to midsummer averages. Shippers remain cautious about committing to long-term contracts, favoring flexible short-term agreements while carriers attempt to stabilize rates through capacity management.
Pricing & Rates – Highlights
- Spot rates fell modestly week-over-week following post-holiday softening.
- Mid-October GRIs are being tested but may not hold without deeper blankings.
- Short-term contracts remain preferred as volatility persists.
Carrier Strategy & Service Updates
Carriers are continuing to rely on tactical blank sailings and delayed service restarts rather than large-scale network restructuring. Several alliances are adjusting individual loops week-by-week to protect load factors, focusing particularly on Asia–US West Coast and Asia–US East Coast services.
Some operators are preparing vessel substitutions and rotation changes ahead of new U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships, set to take effect in mid-October. While the impact is expected to be minor, importers should monitor potential scheduling shifts on affected rotations.
Fleet utilization globally remains moderate, with idle capacity inching up slightly as older vessels temporarily exit service or are redeployed to lower-yield routes.
Carrier & Services – Highlights
- Carriers extending blank sailings and postponing selected loop restarts.
- Mid-October “rate restoration” efforts continue despite weak fundamentals.
- Possible minor vessel swaps in response to new U.S. port fees.
Commentary
For U.S. and Canadian importers, the market remains advantageous but uneven. Space constraints appear only on select weeks or services, while rates continue to ease overall. Importers should use this window to negotiate flexible space agreements and maintain diverse carrier coverage across alliances to manage sudden schedule gaps.
Mid-October rate restoration attempts could briefly lift prices, but lasting increases are unlikely without sharper capacity cuts. Importers moving high-priority cargo should book earlier to avoid blanked sailings, while discretionary shipments may benefit from waiting for post-GRI rate corrections later this month.
Recommended focus areas:
- Monitor Asia–US West Coast blank sailing announcements through late October.
- Secure flexible space options and watch for potential schedule realignments tied to new vessel regulations.
- Expect rate volatility to persist through Q4 as carriers test GRI momentum.
