Ocean freight conditions shifted meaningfully this week as carriers and shippers reacted to two competing forces: (1) a seasonal pre–Lunar New Year lift in Asia–North America demand and spot-rate momentum, and (2) early signals that parts of the market may regain “lost” capacity if Red Sea/Suez routings normalize, which would be rate-negative once fully absorbed. Trans-Pacific rates continued rising through mid-January alongside modest improvements in U.S. retail import volume expectations.
For importers, the practical implication is near-term tightness at the margin—earlier-than-usual seasonal pricing strength and potential space friction on select services—while the medium-term outlook becomes more uncertain as carriers test and selectively reintroduce Red Sea/Suez routings. Some carriers are moving toward structural reinstatement of these routes, while others are signaling renewed caution, suggesting uneven adoption and higher variability by carrier and service.
Highlights
Capacity conditions on Asia–North America are being shaped less by headline blank sailings and more by how carriers manage effective capacity around seasonal demand and potential reintroduction of shorter routings. Carriers appear to be defending January pricing while selectively adding capacity to meet pre–Lunar New Year volumes, tightening utilization enough to support current rate levels.
The most significant capacity variable is the potential shortening of voyage lengths if Red Sea/Suez routings are broadly reinstated. Shorter transits would effectively add capacity back into the market by reducing vessel days per loop. However, the re-timing of networks could temporarily introduce congestion and schedule instability as rotations and port calls are rebalanced.
On the U.S. West Coast, port activity remained generally stable. Oakland ended the prior year with container volumes essentially flat year-over-year and continues incremental terminal investment, supporting predictable cargo flow for importers using the port as a primary or alternative gateway.
Capacity & congestion highlights
Rates moved directionally higher again on trans-Pacific benchmarks over the past week. Spot pricing increased mid-single digits week-over-week on both U.S. West Coast and East Coast routings, supported by early pre–Lunar New Year demand and ongoing carrier efforts to sustain January rate initiatives. However, demand is not as strong as previously expected heading into the Chinese New year. Combined with additional capacity, carriers are under pressure - and have sought not to increase rates.
Looking beyond Lunar New Year, pricing risk increasingly hinges on routing normalization. A broad return to shorter routings would expand effective capacity and put downward pressure on rates, though such a shift is expected to unfold gradually rather than immediately.
Pricing & rates highlights
Carrier strategy this week was dominated by Red Sea/Suez routing decisions and the pace at which carriers are willing to structurally reinstate those routings.
Some carriers have moved toward re-establishing services via Suez on specific loops, framing the shift as a measured return following successful test voyages. This supports shorter transit times and more standardized rotations on affected services.
At the same time, other major carriers signaled renewed caution and diverted vessels away from Suez on certain routes, underscoring that routing strategies are diverging rather than converging. Industry-wide, the re-timing of services could take several months, with interim impacts on schedule reliability as networks adjust.
For importers, this divergence means higher variability by carrier and service string. The same origin–destination pair may experience different transit times, reliability, and equipment cycles depending on routing decisions.
Carrier strategy highlights
The current market environment reflects near-term seasonal firmness paired with emerging medium-term uncertainty. Pre–Lunar New Year demand continues to support rates and space discipline, making early booking advisable where possible to reduce rollover and allocation risk.
For late Q1 planning, importers should assume higher dispersion by carrier and service. Mixed routing strategies mean transit times and reliability will vary more than usual. Practical steps include closely monitoring carrier routing advisories, validating ETAs service-by-service, maintaining buffer inventory where feasible, and preserving optionality in carrier and gateway selection to manage variability as networks continue to adjust.