Shippabo Global Newsletter May 2026

SUMMARY

April 2026 brought a sharp rate spike to transpacific lanes, driven not by demand but by fuel cost volatility following the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Carriers responded with Emergency Fuel Surcharges and targeted blank sailings, pushing Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC rates well above year-opening levels. U.S. port volumes are soft and terminals uncongested — this is a cost story, not a capacity crunch.

• Asia–USWC spot rates rose roughly 40% above pre-conflict late-February levels; Asia–USEC climbed approximately 38%, per Xeneta and Freightos.
• A Peak Season Surcharge effective May 1 has been announced by several carriers, adding further cost pressure heading into Q, but has since then been delayed. .

CAPACITY & CONGESTION

Blank sailings on transpacific eastbound lanes are running at a 6–9% cancellation rate for weeks 17–22, per Drewry, with transpacific eastbound accounting for over half of all announced blanks globally. Carriers are managing supply to defend rates during 2026–2027 contract negotiations. U.S. West Coast terminal congestion is minimal, with dwell times near normal despite the elevated rate environment, providing reliable schedule performance for importers.

• Around 54 blank sailings are expected across weeks 18–22, representing roughly an 8% capacity withdrawal on transpacific lanes, per the Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker.
• Southeast Asia origin lanes — Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines — have normalized from the WK14 tightness reported in March, with space broadly available from WK16 onward.

PRICING & RATES

Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC spot rates surged roughly 40% and 38%, respectively, since late February per Xeneta, before easing modestly in late April. The Drewry WCI fell 3% week-over-week to its April 23 reading, indicating a stable market which may absorb the impact of future spot market increases. Contract rates remain below elevated spot levels, exposing importers reliant on spot bookings to meaningful cost variance.

• Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) activated in March across most carriers on Asia–North America trades remain in effect, with amounts subject to revision as bunker prices fluctuate.
• Peak Season Surcharges announced for May 1 are carrier-dependent and may not hold if blank sailing discipline weakens and utilization softens.

LANE & MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Transpacific lane structure is intact — unlike Persian Gulf lanes, which face active disruption — but fuel-driven surcharges are flowing to all lanes regardless of routing. The Gemini Cooperation shows zero blank sailings on major East-West lanes and leads schedule reliability at 88% on TPWC per Sea-Intelligence. Most other alliances are trending downward on reliability as blank sailing programs create network strain.

• Gemini Cooperation offers notable schedule reliability advantages on transpacific WC services versus the broader carrier market this month.

COMMENTARY

April’s rate spike is fuel-cost-driven, not a sign of cargo market tightness — U.S. port volumes are down year-over-year and terminals are clear. The priority action is to lock in contract coverage before PSS charges take effect per above. Importers on spot market exposure should engage Shippabo now to evaluate current carrier EFS positions and identify favorable contract windows. Shippabo is actively monitoring transpacific lane conditions and managing carrier options on your behalf.