Shippabo Global Newsletter July 2026

SUMMARY

Transpacific capacity tightened sharply through June as an early, aggressive peak season collided with lingering Middle East-driven disruption and tariff-driven frontloading. Drewry's benchmark index climbed as much as 23% in a single week before settling into a steadier 5% weekly gain by month-end, a 22-month high, as blank sailings fell to roughly 3% of scheduled departures. A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire has eased some Strait of Hormuz risk, though carriers remain cautious, and East Coast and Gulf services are booking furthest ahead.

• Far East–US West Coast short-term rates are up roughly 125% since the Middle East conflict began in late February, per Xeneta.
• Shanghai–Los Angeles rates rose 12% week over week and Shanghai–New York rose 6%, per Drewry.
• Booking lead times are stretching hardest on Vietnam and China-origin cargo into the East Coast and Gulf.

CAPACITY & CONGESTION

Capacity on the Transpacific eastbound trade has tightened week over week, with only a handful of blank sailings announced as strong demand absorbs available space, concentrated there versus Asia–Europe and the Transatlantic. Major China gateways including Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen remain under pressure with elevated rolling, while Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City and Haiphong sailings are heavily booked and Indonesia now needs several weeks' notice. Port of Los Angeles volume ran 17% above last year in May, and Vancouver's vessel queues remain short at roughly two days at anchor.

• Only about 3% of scheduled East-West sailings are being blanked, among the lowest cancellation rates in over a year.
• MSC has added weight restrictions on its Gulf Coast service, and Maersk is introducing a heavy-load surcharge on East Coast strings from July 1.
• Cambodia-origin cargo is seeing feeder delays out of Phnom Penh, and conditions across Southeast Asia stay mixed near-term.

PRICING & RATES

Drewry's World Container Index climbed 23% in early June before easing to a still-firm 5% weekly gain by month-end, a 22-month high; Xeneta pegs short-term China–USWC rates roughly 125% above pre-conflict February levels. China–USWC and China–USEC both posted double-digit and mid-single-digit weekly gains respectively, and carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have layered additional surcharges through June, with fresh peak season surcharges, GRIs, and bunker adjustments effective in July. Contract rates remain more insulated than spot, and renewal conversations are trending firmer.

• China–USWC spot rates rose 12% week over week in late June; China–USEC rose 6%, per Drewry.
• Bunker adjustment factors are moving higher into July pricing on top of GRIs already in force.
• Heavy-cargo and weight-based fees are expanding on East Coast and Gulf services as vessels sail full.

LANE & MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Schedule reliability is under real pressure industry-wide, with global on-time performance running well below normal ranges as Middle East rerouting and Southeast Asian transshipment delays compound peak season congestion. Leading alliances, including Gemini Cooperation and MSC, are holding up materially better than the broader market average, though Vietnam sailings remain the hardest to secure and Gulf-bound services are running the fullest of any Transpacific string.

• Industry-wide schedule reliability is running in the 35–40% range, well below historical norms.
• Gemini Cooperation and MSC posted comparatively strong schedule adherence in June despite tighter vessel utilization.
• Retail restocking tied to the FIFA World Cup and mid-year promotions is adding incremental volume on top of the frontloading.

COMMENTARY

With space tight, rates climbing on multiple fronts, and the Section 122 tariff surcharge scheduled to lapse or shift on July 24 — with a parallel USTR Section 301 review that could produce a replacement structure around the same time — importers should confirm bookings 4–6 weeks out, especially for Vietnam and Gulf-bound cargo, and build tariff contingencies into landed-cost models now. Diversifying origin mix toward Southeast Asia can help hedge both capacity and tariff exposure. Shippabo is actively tracking carrier space, sailing schedules, and surcharge activity across every key Transpacific lane — reach out to your account team to lock in capacity ahead of the July peak.