Shippabo Global Newsletter April 2026

SUMMARY

March reshaped the ocean freight landscape. The Strait of Hormuz crisis—triggered by U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran beginning February 28—sent bunker fuel prices surging and prompted emergency fuel surcharges across all major carriers. Transpacific rates reversed their post-Lunar New Year decline, rising for four consecutive weeks. The SCOTUS ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs reduced duty exposure but introduced uncertainty around refund timelines and replacement Section 122 tariffs.

• Transpacific spot rates climbed roughly 3–4% week-over-week in late March, according to Drewry, as the Hormuz disruption tightened fuel supply in Asian bunkering hubs.
• All five major carriers—Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE—introduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) on ocean freight effective mid-to-late March.

CAPACITY & CONGESTION

Blank sailings dominated the transpacific through March. Per Drewry, 48 cancellations were announced across weeks 12–16 out of roughly 705 departures—a 7% cancellation rate, with half on transpacific eastbound lanes. Carriers continued aggressive capacity management post-Lunar New Year as demand recovery remained sluggish amid structural overcapacity.

• The Port of Los Angeles reported 824,323 TEUs in February, up 3% year-over-year, though officials noted the Hormuz conflict could disrupt near-term flows.
• Fuel supply tightening at Singapore and Chinese bunkering hubs is prompting slow steaming and alternative refueling, adding transit time variability on Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC routes.

PRICING & RATES

After six weeks of declines, the Drewry World Container Index reversed course, rising 5% to reach its fourth straight weekly gain by March 26. Shanghai–USWC rates were up roughly 4% week-over-week; East Coast rates rose approximately 3%. Asia–Europe rates climbed faster, with Shanghai–Genoa up 12% in a single week. The driver is fuel: Brent crude exceeded $100/barrel for the first time in four years after the Hormuz closure.

• EFS and Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS) are now layered on top of existing BAF mechanisms across long-haul trades, with inland fuel surcharges also taking effect for rail and drayage.
• GRIs for April 1 have been announced by multiple carriers; per Freightos, shippers on index-linked contracts face potential double-recovery risk where EFS overlaps with index-embedded fuel costs.

LANE & MARKET INTELLIGENCE

The Hormuz crisis is reshaping global routing. Major carriers suspended direct Gulf port calls and diverted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days of transit. An estimated 140 container ships remain affected in the Gulf region. Some carriers have cautiously resumed select Red Sea/Suez transits, but the Houthi threat of renewed attacks keeps this corridor uncertain.

• On transpacific lanes, carriers are favoring West Coast services, injecting 5% more capacity for the May–July window, per Sea Intelligence—signaling expected cargo front-loading.
• Schedule reliability remains under pressure: equipment repositioning from Gulf hubs and Hormuz-related diversions are expected to create container imbalances at U.S. ports over the next 2–4 weeks.

COMMENTARY

March 2026 marked a turning point. The Hormuz crisis has layered fuel-cost volatility on top of an already overcapacitated market—rates rising not from demand strength but from cost-push pressure. Importers should review all-in freight costs lane by lane, paying close attention to EFS and inland surcharge additions not captured in headline quotes. Confirm booking lead times for April and May sailings now—carrier capacity on USWC-bound services is tightening. Shippabo is actively monitoring surcharge filings, blank sailing schedules, and routing changes to protect your bookings and optimize cost across the transpacific.

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